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UBS Asset Management RM Clients Review on Real Estate Focus
Client review for RM: This tailor-made topic is for RM from asset management.
The recovery theme from our last edition extends into this quarter. The initial exuberance from the rollout of vaccination programs has largely settled, replaced now by real confidence that regional and global demand are improving as seen in a slew of positive economic data releases. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Asia is a good leading indicator of business conditions and sentiments. We have seen a consistent recovery in Asia’s aggregate PMI since the trough in April 2020 when it touched a low of 38. The latest PMI readings across the region (see Figure 1) inform us that business conditions are indeed looking up, as all major markets are now in expansionary territories.
That gave rise to fears that higher interest rates could be a premature dampener on the nascent recovery story in the real economy. All said, inflation is a double-edged sword for commercial real estate. On one hand, inflation is generally correlated with rent growth which bodes well for the NOI performance of real estate in general. On the other hand, excessive inflationary expectations will lead to an increase in borrowing costs as nominal interest rates rise in tandem. That often puts pressure on existing asset owners who are looking to refinance their property holdings, as well as investors tapping into investment and construction loans.
At the point of writing, China recorded an 18.3% YoY surge in GDP growth in 1Q21, relative to the same period last year. Japan’s nominal goods exports rose by 16.1% YoY in March 2021. Singapore’s trade surplus reached an all-time high in 1Q21, largely due to an outstanding 21% YoY increase in exports in the month of March. In Australia, the unemployment rate dropped to a one-year low of 5.6%, with the number of employed persons surpassing pre-pandemic levels. That means the Australian economy has more than recovered the approximately 870,000 jobs lost due to the lockdowns last year. The list of positive news runs long.
Overall demand in the private and public segment will support household and business expenditure, which further feeds into improving labor markets across the region. Strong growth prospects underpin the reflationary expectations which have been building up over the past few months. We experienced recent episodes in which the fixed income markets reacted in expectations of an inflationary environment, as long-term bond yields spiked in some economies.
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